Market Mirror Strategy Comparison
Compare common crediting structures against the raw index.
Choose any 25-year window starting between 1975 and 2000.
First-year withdrawal locks at 4% of the end-of-year-1 balance, then increases 3% per year to simulate a fixed income with cost-of-living adjustments. Taken at year-end after returns; balances stop at $0 if depleted.
Withdrawal figures are pre-tax and do not account for potential penalties or fees, if applicable.
Each year, the index return is applied to the prior year-end balance. Strategy rules adjust that return before it compounds:
- Caps limit the credited return (e.g. 8% or 10%); negative years are floored at 0%.
- Spreads subtract a fixed amount (e.g. 3% or 5%) from a positive return; negative years are floored at 0%.
Ending: $45,431
Ending: $33,192
Ending: $36,533
Ending: $48,346
Ending: $102,869
Ending: $77,364
Ending: $47,223
Y-axis is logarithmic so early and late years stay readable. Returns are applied annually using S&P 500 price-only (excluding dividends) historical data.
| Year | S&P 500 Return | S&P 500 | S&P 500 − 1.25% management fee | 0% floor / 8% cap | 0% floor / 10% cap | 0% floor / 3% spread (uncapped) | 0% floor / 5% spread (uncapped) | NASDAQ 0% floor / 10% cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | -10.14% | $8,986 | $8,861 | $10,000 | $10,000 | $10,000 | $10,000 | $10,000 |
| 2001 | -13.04% | $7,814 | $7,595 | $10,000 | $10,000 | $10,000 | $10,000 | $10,000 |
| 2002 | -23.37% | $5,988 | $5,725 | $10,000 | $10,000 | $10,000 | $10,000 | $10,000 |
| 2003 | +26.38% | $7,568 | $7,164 | $10,800 | $11,000 | $12,338 | $12,138 | $11,000 |
| 2004 | +8.99% | $8,248 | $7,718 | $11,664 | $11,989 | $13,077 | $12,622 | $11,945 |
| 2005 | +3.00% | $8,495 | $7,853 | $12,014 | $12,349 | $13,077 | $12,622 | $12,109 |
| 2006 | +13.62% | $9,653 | $8,825 | $12,975 | $13,583 | $14,466 | $13,710 | $13,261 |
| 2007 | +3.53% | $9,993 | $9,026 | $13,433 | $14,063 | $14,542 | $13,710 | $14,562 |
| 2008 | -38.49% | $6,147 | $5,439 | $13,433 | $14,063 | $14,542 | $13,710 | $14,562 |
| 2009 | +23.45% | $7,588 | $6,646 | $14,508 | $15,469 | $17,516 | $16,240 | $16,018 |
| 2010 | +12.78% | $8,558 | $7,413 | $15,668 | $17,016 | $19,230 | $17,503 | $17,620 |
| 2011 | +0.00% | $8,558 | $7,320 | $15,668 | $17,016 | $19,230 | $17,503 | $17,620 |
| 2012 | +13.41% | $9,706 | $8,210 | $16,922 | $18,718 | $21,231 | $18,975 | $19,382 |
| 2013 | +29.60% | $12,579 | $10,538 | $18,276 | $20,590 | $26,879 | $23,643 | $21,321 |
| 2014 | +11.39% | $14,011 | $11,606 | $19,738 | $22,648 | $29,134 | $25,154 | $23,453 |
| 2015 | -0.73% | $13,909 | $11,376 | $19,738 | $22,648 | $29,134 | $25,154 | $24,796 |
| 2016 | +9.54% | $15,236 | $12,320 | $21,317 | $24,809 | $31,039 | $26,296 | $26,656 |
| 2017 | +19.42% | $18,195 | $14,558 | $23,022 | $27,290 | $36,136 | $30,088 | $29,322 |
| 2018 | -6.24% | $17,059 | $13,468 | $23,022 | $27,290 | $36,136 | $30,088 | $29,322 |
| 2019 | +28.88% | $21,986 | $17,189 | $24,864 | $30,019 | $45,488 | $37,273 | $32,254 |
| 2020 | +16.26% | $25,561 | $19,769 | $26,853 | $33,021 | $51,520 | $41,470 | $35,479 |
| 2021 | +26.89% | $32,435 | $24,837 | $29,001 | $36,323 | $63,828 | $50,548 | $39,027 |
| 2022 | -19.44% | $26,129 | $19,699 | $29,001 | $36,323 | $63,828 | $50,548 | $39,027 |
| 2023 | +24.23% | $32,460 | $24,225 | $31,321 | $39,955 | $77,378 | $60,268 | $42,930 |
| 2024 | +23.31% | $40,027 | $29,569 | $33,827 | $43,951 | $93,094 | $71,303 | $47,223 |
| 2025 | +13.50% | $45,431 | $33,192 | $36,533 | $48,346 | $102,869 | $77,364 | $47,223 |
| Strategy | 5-Year Avg | 10-Year Avg | 15-Year Avg | 20-Year Avg | Lowest 5-Yr Avg | Lowest 10-Yr Avg | Highest 5-Yr Avg | Highest 10-Yr Avg | Avg 25-Yr Rolling |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +12.19% | +12.57% | +11.77% | +8.75% | -4.07% | -2.72% | +16.31% | +14.25% | +7.68% |
| S&P 500 − 1.25% management fee | +10.92% | +11.30% | +10.51% | +7.47% | -5.36% | -4.00% | +15.05% | +12.99% | +6.41% |
| 0% floor / 8% cap | +6.35% | +6.35% | +5.81% | +5.72% | +3.13% | +3.79% | +6.35% | +6.35% | +5.10% |
| 0% floor / 10% cap | +7.92% | +7.88% | +7.21% | +7.06% | +3.69% | +4.46% | +7.92% | +7.88% | +6.18% |
| 0% floor / 3% spread (uncapped) | +14.83% | +13.45% | +11.83% | +10.86% | +3.34% | +5.77% | +16.45% | +13.45% | +9.78% |
| 0% floor / 5% spread (uncapped) | +13.28% | +11.89% | +10.42% | +9.49% | +2.47% | +4.97% | +14.90% | +11.89% | +8.58% |
| NASDAQ 0% floor / 10% cap | +5.89% | +6.65% | +6.79% | +7.04% | +3.62% | +4.82% | +8.63% | +8.28% | +6.66% |
Trailing CAGRs are through 2025. Lowest and highest columns scan all rolling N-year periods in the dataset.
Disclosure: The figures shown are a hypothetical illustration based on historical index data and should not be interpreted as a forecast or guarantee of future performance. Index values do not include taxes, dividends, rider charges, or the specific crediting methodologies used by any insurance carrier. Actual results will vary.