Market Mirror Strategy Comparison
Compare common crediting structures against the raw index.
Choose any 25-year window starting between 1975 and 2000.
First-year withdrawal locks at 4% of the end-of-year-1 balance, then increases 3% per year to simulate a fixed income with cost-of-living adjustments. Taken at year-end after returns; balances stop at $0 if depleted.
Withdrawal figures are pre-tax and do not account for potential penalties or fees, if applicable.
Each year, the index return is applied to the prior year-end balance. Strategy rules adjust that return before it compounds:
- Caps limit the credited return (e.g. 8% or 10%); negative years are floored at 0%.
- Spreads subtract a fixed amount (e.g. 3% or 5%) from a positive return; negative years are floored at 0%.
Ending: $45,431
Ending: $41,607
Ending: $43,814
Ending: $51,515
Ending: $72,084
Ending: $61,977
Ending: $129,941
Y-axis is logarithmic so early and late years stay readable. Returns are applied annually using S&P 500 price-only (excluding dividends) historical data.
| Year | S&P 500 Return | S&P 500 | S&P 500 (divs reinvested) − 1.25% mgmt fee − 20% tax | 0% floor / 9.25% cap | 0% floor / 10.5% cap | 0% floor / 5.5% spread (uncapped) | 0% floor / 63% participation (uncapped) | NASDAQ-100 0% floor / 10.75% spread (uncapped, 100% participation) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | -10.14% | $8,986 | $9,172 | $10,000 | $10,000 | $10,000 | $10,000 | $10,000 |
| 2001 | -13.04% | $7,814 | $8,208 | $10,000 | $10,000 | $10,000 | $10,000 | $10,000 |
| 2002 | -23.37% | $5,988 | $6,675 | $10,000 | $10,000 | $10,000 | $10,000 | $10,000 |
| 2003 | +26.38% | $7,568 | $8,139 | $10,925 | $11,050 | $12,088 | $11,662 | $13,837 |
| 2004 | +8.99% | $8,248 | $8,766 | $11,907 | $12,043 | $12,510 | $12,322 | $13,837 |
| 2005 | +3.00% | $8,495 | $9,023 | $12,264 | $12,405 | $12,510 | $12,555 | $13,837 |
| 2006 | +13.62% | $9,653 | $10,073 | $13,399 | $13,707 | $13,526 | $13,633 | $13,837 |
| 2007 | +3.53% | $9,993 | $10,414 | $13,872 | $14,191 | $13,526 | $13,936 | $14,933 |
| 2008 | -38.49% | $6,147 | $7,227 | $13,872 | $14,191 | $13,526 | $13,936 | $14,933 |
| 2009 | +23.45% | $7,588 | $8,685 | $15,155 | $15,681 | $15,954 | $15,995 | $21,323 |
| 2010 | +12.78% | $8,558 | $9,645 | $16,557 | $17,328 | $17,115 | $17,282 | $23,129 |
| 2011 | +0.00% | $8,558 | $9,711 | $16,557 | $17,328 | $17,115 | $17,282 | $23,129 |
| 2012 | +13.41% | $9,706 | $10,857 | $18,088 | $19,147 | $18,469 | $18,743 | $24,533 |
| 2013 | +29.60% | $12,579 | $13,562 | $19,761 | $21,157 | $22,920 | $22,238 | $30,479 |
| 2014 | +11.39% | $14,011 | $14,911 | $21,589 | $23,379 | $24,270 | $23,833 | $32,671 |
| 2015 | -0.73% | $13,909 | $14,927 | $21,589 | $23,379 | $24,270 | $23,833 | $32,671 |
| 2016 | +9.54% | $15,236 | $16,206 | $23,586 | $25,609 | $25,250 | $25,266 | $32,671 |
| 2017 | +19.42% | $18,195 | $18,874 | $25,768 | $28,298 | $28,765 | $28,357 | $39,457 |
| 2018 | -6.24% | $17,059 | $18,024 | $25,768 | $28,298 | $28,765 | $28,357 | $39,457 |
| 2019 | +28.88% | $21,986 | $22,384 | $28,152 | $31,270 | $35,490 | $33,516 | $50,193 |
| 2020 | +16.26% | $25,561 | $25,455 | $30,756 | $34,553 | $39,309 | $36,950 | $68,679 |
| 2021 | +26.89% | $32,435 | $31,047 | $33,601 | $38,181 | $47,717 | $43,209 | $79,585 |
| 2022 | -19.44% | $26,129 | $26,238 | $33,601 | $38,181 | $47,717 | $43,209 | $79,585 |
| 2023 | +24.23% | $32,460 | $31,495 | $36,709 | $42,190 | $56,655 | $49,805 | $113,854 |
| 2024 | +23.31% | $40,027 | $37,484 | $40,104 | $46,620 | $66,745 | $57,119 | $129,941 |
| 2025 | +13.50% | $45,431 | $41,607 | $43,814 | $51,515 | $72,084 | $61,977 | $129,941 |
| Strategy | 5-Year Avg | 10-Year Avg | 15-Year Avg | 20-Year Avg | Lowest 5-Yr Avg | Lowest 10-Yr Avg | Highest 5-Yr Avg | Highest 10-Yr Avg | Avg 25-Yr Rolling |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +12.19% | +12.57% | +11.77% | +8.75% | -4.07% | -2.72% | +16.31% | +14.25% | +7.68% |
| S&P 500 (divs reinvested) − 1.25% mgmt fee − 20% tax | +10.33% | +10.79% | +10.24% | +7.94% | -2.60% | -1.40% | +13.89% | +12.32% | +8.00% |
| 0% floor / 9.25% cap | +7.33% | +7.33% | +6.70% | +6.57% | +3.55% | +4.25% | +7.33% | +7.33% | +5.79% |
| 0% floor / 10.5% cap | +8.32% | +8.22% | +7.53% | +7.38% | +3.79% | +4.60% | +8.32% | +8.22% | +6.44% |
| 0% floor / 5.5% spread (uncapped) | +12.89% | +11.50% | +10.06% | +9.15% | +2.27% | +4.78% | +14.52% | +11.50% | +8.29% |
| 0% floor / 63% participation (uncapped) | +10.90% | +10.03% | +8.89% | +8.31% | +3.63% | +4.81% | +11.92% | +10.03% | +7.55% |
| NASDAQ-100 0% floor / 10.75% spread (uncapped, 100% participation) | +13.60% | +14.80% | +12.19% | +11.85% | +1.54% | +7.87% | +23.61% | +14.80% | +14.02% |
Trailing CAGRs are through 2025. Lowest and highest columns scan all rolling N-year periods in the dataset.
Disclosure: The figures shown are a hypothetical illustration based on historical index data and should not be interpreted as a forecast or guarantee of future performance. Index values do not include taxes, dividends, rider charges, or the specific crediting methodologies used by any insurance carrier. Actual results will vary.